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Electricity Trading Performance Analysis

Real-time Power Generation P&L
Post-trading Performance Analysis, Electricity and Fuel
Real-time Nodal P&L and Position Reporting
Actual and Optimal Trading Performance Analysis
Real-time Business Intelligence


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Real-time and post-trading performance analysis comparing actual, optimal and any what-if scenarios. For utilities, we analyze the trading performance of utility portfolio dispatch and buy-sell to ISO. For plants, generation and bidding decisions to an ISO. Performance indicators: (sub)-hourly nodal power, fuel, load, cost, revenue and P&L.

QuantRisk optimization automatically runs 24/7. It is followed by real-time or day-ahead (sub)-hourly position and detailed valuation of nodal P&L, buy-sell, fuel and other costs for each generation or dispatch node. P&L valuation from a performance analysis perspective, benchmarking actual against optimal scenarios, with the difference representing expected gains/losses. Results are displayed in live web-panels. Performance analysis going forward to guide trading (generation, bidding, dispatch) decisions in real-time or DA. Performance analysis post trading for management to refine strategies and monitor trading performance.
Electricity market is a zero-sum game with constraints and flexibilities. Arbitrage opportunities resulting from changes in the spot market can be captured via optimization. Running post-trading back-testing optimization measures the performance of actual trading versus the best possible optimal strategy that was also available but missed by the traders. The difference between actual and hypothetical optimal measures trading opportunity costs, or potential extra profits that could have been achieved and were lost.
Modeling and Forecasting Liquidity

Intraday Performance and Risk Management

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    As trading occurs, QR Optimization runs automatically every period to project optimal generation, bidding and dispatch scenarios, based on forecasted load and nodal prices. These are followed by QR Real-time Performance Analysis for every period, going days forward: (sub)-hourly position and detailed nodal P&L, generation and ISO buy-sell, fuel and other costs.
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    Real-time performance analysis execution is in seconds, allowing ample time for optimal decision making to generate and bid assets to ISOs, or dispatch across procurement portfolios.
  •   Benefits of this solution:
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      In one glance, traders can compare the P&L of optimal and other alternative dispatch or generation and bidding scenarios before making their trading decisions. This is real-time trading support and business intelligence.
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      Trading heads are provided with real-time visibility into trading performance and cash flow risk management. The difference between optimal and actual measures trading cash flow at risk.
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      Set the optimal strategies (generation, bidding, and dispatch) and P&L as the ultimate target. Then fine-tune actual real-time and day-ahead trading strategies to narrow the difference.
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      Traders can make sure to stay within set loss tolerance and cash flow at risk ratios.
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      Perfect solution to manage cash flow at risk in real-time. By following the optimal solution, traders can take guessing games and cash flow at risk out of trading decision making.

After-day Trading Performance Analysis

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    After a trading day, QR Real-time Trading Performance Analysis Panel runs backwards for performance analysis.
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    The back-test performance analysis uses 2 scenarios. Actual uses actual confirmed meter data and nodal prices. This is what traders achieved in the market. Then the back-test optimization goes back in time to the start of the performance testing periods and forecasts load and prices and optimizes trading and measures its impact of the nodal prices. In short, the back-test optimization creates the hypothetical alternate universe, had optimal trading been followed. This represents the best that traders could have done.
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    The difference between the back-test optimization scenario and the actual or other what-if trading scenarios is a precise measurement of avoidable losses or opportunity costs on the down-side, or potential gains and profits on the upside.
  •  Benefits of this solution:
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      Management and executives benefit from visibility into trading performance and cash flow risk management. The difference between optimal and actual measures trading cash flow at risk.
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      Answer key questions: which trading strategies (generation, bids or dispatch) caused this much losses or gains? Under which market conditions? How did our trading strategies affect market prices?
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      Set loss tolerance and cash flow at risk ratios.
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    Trading and portfolio managers can fine-tune trading strategies and planning. The optimal back-tested strategies (generation, bidding, and dispatch) represent the ultimate best scenario. Compare and benchmark actual and other what-if- trading scenarios against the optimal.
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    Establish performance targets and cash flow at risk limits for the trading team. E.g., trading strategy must capture at least 95% of available upsides, and not to lose more than 5% of the downside. Set performance based compensation schemes.
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    This is the perfect solution to manage cash flow at risk in real-time.